Pithaly

At a handful of sites across the country, after a four-decade hiatus, psychedelic research is undergoing a quiet renaissance, thanks to scientists like Charles Grob who are revisiting the powerful mind-altering drugs of the 1960s in hopes of making them part of our therapeutic arsenal. Hallucinogens such as psilocybin, MDMA (better known as Ecstasy), and the most controversial of them all, LSD, are being tested as treatments for maladies that modern medicine has done little to assuage, such as post-traumatic stress disorder, drug dependency, obsessive-compulsive disorder, cluster headaches, and the emotional suffering of people with a terminal illness.

While Grob’s study is not complete—he has tested 11 out of a projected 12 volunteers—patients seemed to have positive experiences. “No one had a bad trip, and most derived some benefit,” he says. “It lowered their anxiety, improved their mood and disposition, and imbued them with a greater acceptance of their situation and capacity to live in the moment and appreciate each day.”

Other early test results are equally encouraging. University of Arizona scientists recently fed psilocybin to nine volunteers whose obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) was so disabling that many could not hold down a job or leave the house; they would observe elaborate cleaning rituals or shower for hours until they felt comfortable. Conventional treatments such as psychotherapy and medication had failed. In each of the nine patients in the study, psilocybin drastically diminished or melted away their compulsions for up to 24 hours, and several remained symptom-free for days.

In another ongoing study, psychiatrist Michael Mithoefer of Charleston, South Carolina, is testing MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) on people suffering from severe post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including rape victims and Iraq War veterans who have not gotten any relief from conventional treatments such as antidepressants and therapy.

PTSD is normally triggered by a terrifying incident—combat, childhood sexual abuse, physical abuse, a serious accident, rape, or a natural disaster—in which people feel their lives are in danger but are powerless to defend themselves. Sometimes PTSD can be triggered by growing up in a harrowing environment where a child is at the mercy of a cruel parent or parental figure. To survive such horrific circumstances, sufferers often numb themselves to their pain. The cornerstone of PTSD treatment involves reliving the trauma in a way that enables patients to process their fears in a rational way. But by definition, revisiting the experience can be frightening, and people often become locked in the grip of intense anxiety.

The drug MDMA, a chemical cousin of mescaline and methamphetamine, can kindle intense euphoria or sublime seren­ity, creating a calming therapeutic environment in which to revisit trauma. Eighteen out of a projected 21 patients in Mithoefer’s study have already been treated, and in many cases just two sessions dramatically diminished symptoms, which is remarkable because PTSD in this group of subjects has been resistant to other types of treatment.

What are the drugs doing to create such powerful effects? At the chemical level, psilocybin, LSD, and DMT—which are classified as tryptamines—are structurally similar to serotonin, a powerful chemical messenger that expedites the transmission of nerve signals in the brain. Tryptamines work by mimicking the action of serotonin, which is responsible for controlling an array of functions, including mood, sexual desires, sleep cycles, memory, and appetite. MDMA is a phenethylamine; it taps into the neuronal reservoirs of the key brain chemicals serotonin, dopamine, and norepinephrine (adrenaline), boosting their levels in the brain. Mescaline, although it is classified as a phenethylamine, works more like LSD or DMT.

Will these studies finally open the door to acceptance? David Nichols says psychedelics researchers keep a low profile “because everyone lives in fear that some administrator will kill their project.” Roland Griffiths of Johns Hopkins, for example, who has been doing pharmacological research for more than three decades, never had a project scrutinized as thoroughly by his institution’s review board and the FDA as his 2006 psilocybin study was. Throughout the study he worried that negative publicity might halt the research.

Read more: Read more on this article...

Every once in a while comes a great singer with a debut song. Britney and Alicia to name two. Lisa Lavie has ni her debut album, at least two great songs. Watch this girl. She's gonna go places. So much better than Mariah Carey, and so much more genuine. Which in the end is what counts. No?

From the guy who brought you Joe Bonamassa.


Lisa Lavie - "Everything Or Nothing"


http://youtube.com/watch?v=K4LnV0gC_X0


Lisa Lavie - "Save Your Breath"



http://youtube.com/watch?v=L-KKdtyn4PE&feature=user Read more on this article...

Richie Havens - Strawberry Fields Forever.

Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to ... Strawberry Fields.
Nothing is real ... and nothing to get hung about!
Strawberry Fields forever.



The Who - See Me Feel Me



Jefferson Airplane - Somebody to love



Janis Joplin - Try



Ten Years After - I'm Going Home




****************** Read more on this article...

And played it for Decca Records in 1962 and got REJECTED.

So why was this song bled to death by a group of young teens? Was it to impress the bubblegum crowd? Was it because they hated their mothers?

The worst parts:

"Cha Cha Boom!!"

"So, Besame Mucho....."!!" "So", muthafukers?? "So"??

No one knows that this was how the Portuguese were made to leave Goa. "Besame Mucho" (as performed by the Beatles) was played loudly on the streets of Panaji. You had the Portuguese running helter skelter and diving into the waters.


A few hundreds of these tortured souls were washed ashore on Juhu beach.

To name some:

1. Menon (expired, God bless his soul)
2. Xavier (expired, God bless his soul)
3. Costi
4. Albert
5. Joe
6. Saby (likely to expire, Jesus bless his soul)

A local resident, Pithaly, (hope his soul will be blessed when he finally does expire), greeted these strangers with coconut water and Channa-Sing. (That's peanuts and chickpeas).

The rest is history.

Sitting on the Yellow Pole, with great love and affection, Besame Mucho was resurrected from it's ignominious rendition into the original Portuguese, and of course, an ALTERNATIVE translation into English, a version which I hum every morning.

So, here it is:

The WAY "Besame Mucho" should be sung. Presented by the GREAT Andrea Bocelli. God bless you, man, for bringing to life what is arguably the FINEST love song ever! Muchas Gracias!!



Bésame, bésame mucho
Como si fuera esta noche
La última vez

Bésame, bésame mucho
Que tengo miedo a perderte
Perderte después

Bésame, bésame mucho
Como si fuera esta noche
La última vez

Bésame, bésame mucho
Que tengo miedo a perderte
Perderte después

Quiero tenerte muy cerca
Mirarme en tus ojos
Verte junto a mi
Piensa que tal ves mañana
Yo ya estaré lejos
Muy lejos de ti

Bésame, bésame mucho
Como si fuera esta noche
La última vez

Bésame, bésame mucho
Que tengo miedo a perderte
Perderte después

Bésame, bésame mucho
Que tengo miedo a perderte
Perderte después

Que tengo miedo a perderte
Perderte después

**************************************

And as performed by Tino Rossi, 1945:





Besame, besa me mucho
Each time I cling to your kiss I hear music divine
Besame, besa me mucho
Love me forever and say that you'll always be mine

This joy is something new
My arms enfolding you
Never knew, this thrill before
Whoever thought, I'd be holding you close to me
Whispering it was you, I adore

Besa me, besa me mucho
Love me forever and say that you'll always be mine
Who ever thought I'd be holding you, close to me
Whispering it was you I adore

Dearest one
If you should leave me
Then each little dream will take wing
And my life will be through

Besa me, besa me mucho
Love me forever and say that you'll always be mine
Love me forever and say that you'll always be mine
Love me forever and say that you'll always be mine Read more on this article...

"My name is Richard C. Cook, and I was the NASA analyst who testified before the Presidential Commission on the dangers of the solid rocket booster O-ring seals after the Challenger disaster of January 28, 1986."

http://www.richardccook.com/articles.php


The Battle for America Has Begun

"The U.S. financial system began to deflate in the summer of 2007 but has so far avoided a wholesale crash due to the easy credit policies of the Federal Reserve in allowing financial institutions to roll over their debts. This is all likely to terminate after the 2008 election, when the Federal Reserve stops bailing out the system and real depression sets in. Simply put, the U.S. population no longer has anything close to sufficient income to support its accustomed way of life, especially with the ongoing collapse of the standard of living due to oil and food price increases.

So the war-mongers may be thinking they must now act before it's too late—before a worldwide convulsion throws them from their seats of power. The time for the financiers to set off the next major conflagration may have arrived. Naïve American politicians are there, as always, ready to help, perhaps sensing but not really acknowledging that they have been led into a trap."

It was really the European elite, both deeply materialistic and coldly inhumane, that was responsible for both of the 20 th century's world wars, for funding the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia , and for bringing about today's economic crisis that threatens to reduce to abject poverty or even starve perhaps half of the world's population. Now a third world war threatens, and while it appears on the surface that the immediate cause may be U.S. ambitions in the Middle East , this is a mask for the underlying machinations of the European controllers who are pulling the strings.

These people couldn't care less if the U.S. is bankrupted or destroyed in a larger Asian conflict while engaged in doing their dirty work. In fact that appears to be the plan. A nation like the U.S. that owes as much money as it does today to foreigners, including China and Japan who purchase close to half our national debt, is no longer master of its own destiny.

The war scenario is unfolding now and will likely accelerate as we approach the November presidential election. The actions underway appear to be designed to present any new president with a fait accompli, where corrective action is no longer possible. It would be the last and worst of the catastrophes visited on our nation by the revolutionary cabal of George W. Bush, Richard Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, and the neocon shock troopers who took over when the Supreme Court awarded Bush the presidency after the 2000 Florida election debacle."

Copyright 2008 Richard C. Cook

Read more here.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4710.html Read more on this article...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gwk4vkyapc&feature=related


DETROIT, Michigan (AFP) — High tech met high art when a robot conducted the Detroit Symphony Orchestra.

It was the first time an orchestra was handed over to a robot and the diminutive, spaceman-like machine got rave reviews.

Both the audience and performers burst into applause after Honda's ASIMO (Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility) robot led the symphony in a performance of "The Impossible Dream" ahead of a sold-out concert featuring cellist Yo-Yo Ma.

"It's exciting to see. The technology is mind boggling," said bass trombone player Randall Hawes, who has played with the Detroit Symphony Orchestra for 22 years.

"I was struck by how fluid the walk was when it came out and how still it was."

But Hawes doesn't think the diminutive white robot will replace human conductors any time soon.

"We react to it. It doesn't react to us," he said. "That's the only thing that's missing. We knew when it was going to stop so we stopped."

The symphony extended the invitation to ASIMO earlier this year after Honda donated one million dollars to establish The Power of Dreams Music Education Fund, which will support music education to underserved children around Detroit.

Honda has 25 ASIMO-type robots serving as ambassadors around the world and hopes to one day use the robots to help people confined to wheelchairs.

Commercialization of an ASIMO-like machine "is closer than you think," said Honda spokesman Jeffrey Smith.

"It's an incredibly sophisticated and complex machine." Read more on this article...

Arguably the most authentic UFO sighting. Makes good reading!

"They had both walked quite a distance now, and were in the centre of the forest. As they moved closer they noticed a small, shiny object sitting within a clearing. It had a bank of blue lights on it and it was just sitting there, it was completely stationary. "It was unbelievable...we got pretty close to the object, we knew it had the feet on he ground from there", says Burroughs. Jim Penniston managed to get really close to the landed object, "I got to within 10 feet of the craft and the clearing where it sat. I estimated it to be about three meters tall and about three meters wide at the base." Penniston moved closer, he was right next to the object now, he was able to see exactly what it looked like." The air was filled with electricity - like static. You could feel it on your skin as you approached the object. There was also a sense of slowness, like time itself was an effort", said Penniston. It soon became difficult to walk and move, rather like they were wading through treacle. Everything seemed to be slowing down. "It was like a weird feeling, like everything seemed slower than you were actually doing and stuff", said Burroughs.

Jim Penniston was standing right next to the landed object, "no landing gear was apparent, but it seemed like it was on fixed legs. I walked around the craft, and finally, I walked right up to the craft. I noticed the fabric of the shell was like a smooth, opaque, black glass. The bluish lights went from black to grey to blue. I was pretty much confused at that point. I kept trying to put this in some kind of frame of reference, trying to find some logical explanation as to what this was and what was going on. It was dead silent. No animals were even making noise anymore. The nearer we got to that thing the more uneasy I felt...it was as if I was moving in slow motion."

Jim Penniston had his notebook and camera with him, so he began to take notes about the object which was sitting in front of him. Penniston read an extract from his notepad on the Sci-Fi Channel's documentary about Rendlesham, "... triangular in shape. The top portion is producing mainly white light, which encompasses most of the upper section of the craft. A small amount of white light peers out the bottom. At the left side centre is a bluish light, and on the other side, red. The lights seem to be moulded as part of the exterior of the structure, smooth, slowly fading into the rest of the outside of the structure, gradually moulding into the fabric of the craft'. "As I was taking notes, I also memorized what was in front of me for what seemed like hours, but was in fact only minutes. Finally, I unleashed my camera-case cover and brought the camera up to focus. I began snapping photo after photo. [Soon] I had already taken all 36 pictures on my roll of film. On the smooth exterior shell there was writing of some kind, but I couldn't quite distinguish it, so I moved up to it. It was three-inch lettering, rather symbols that stretched for the length of two feet, maybe a little more."

Jim Penniston then proceeded to touch the landed object, he was only able to for a short time. "I touched the symbols, and I could feel the shapes as if they were inscribed or etched or engraved, like a diamond cut on glass." Soon after he touched the symbols, the white light on the object instantly grew brighter. Jim Penniston and John Burroughs jumped backwards in defence, they threw themselves onto the floor for cover. "At that point, I backed away from the craft, because the light was starting to get brighter. Still, there was no sound." Said Penniston. "We all hit the ground...", said Burroughs rather literally. The white light flooding out from the top of the unknown object was almost blinding. "The craft moved up off the ground, about three feet, still with absolutely no sound. It started to move slowly, weaving back through the trees at a very slow pace, maybe a half a foot per second. It took about a couple of minutes for it to manoeuvre itself back to a distance of about 100 to 150 feet, then it rose up just over the trees, about 200 feet high. There was a momentary pause and then literally with the blink of an eye it was gone. All with no sound. That still boggles my mind", stated Penniston."

http://www.rendlesham-incident.co.uk/25-26-december.php Read more on this article...

May 13, 2008 -- Banking analyst Meredith Whitney blasted Citigroup's turnaround plan yesterday, saying the financial giant is so deep in a black hole that even renown physicist Stephen Hawking could not help the ailing company.

"We wish [Citi's] management team all the best in their ambitious endeavors, but we fear [it] is past the point of fixing," quipped the Oppenheimer analyst known for her forecast that the company would slash its dividend.

The biting remarks, in the form of a research note to clients, came on the heels of Citi's long-awaited turnaround plan, unveiled by the bank's executive team on Friday.

In a nearly four-hour presentation with investors and analysts, CEO Vikram Pandit said the bank aims to get rid of $400 billion in noncore assets but otherwise rejected calls to boost the stock by spinning off units.

Instead, Pandit outlined plans to further integrate the conglomerate by doing away with overlapping technology systems, among other changes.

Whitney gave Pandit's presentation two thumbs down, saying it was "glaringly light on actual mechanics," and "almost identical to one given by former CEO Chuck Prince about a year and a half ago."

Prince, who was dethroned for his role in Citi's mortgage-related losses, stepped down days after Whitney issued her infamous prediction about Citi's dividend and placed an "underperform" rating on Citi's already battered stock.

Whitney agreed Citi's "antiquated and disparate" technology systems need work, but expressed skepticism about Pandit's plans to pull it off in tough financial times.

Similar efforts at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo were "extremely disruptive and expensive," she said.

Whitney also predicted, in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday, that Citi will be forced to sell major businesses by the end of this year or early next year, and specifically pointed to Banamex, a Mexican bank Citi bought in 2001.

She also recommended investors sell their shares, which closed up a penny at $23.64 in New York Stock Exchange trading.

"The credit outlooks and the loss assumptions for banks across the board are way too low," Whitney said. "The outlook for earnings across the board is going to be much worse than people expect."

http://www.nypost.com/seven/05132008/business/citi_is_beyond_repair_110684.htm Read more on this article...

They'll call it Stormy Monday



By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:59am BST 13/05/2008

As a "non-believer" in the instant rebound story, I am not easily shocked by gloomy reports. But the latest note by Standard & Poor's -

The Bust After The Boom - gave me a fright.

The sick list is varied, though most for now are victims of the housing crash: Linens 'n Things, ($650m), Kimball Hill ($703m), Home Interiors ($310m), French Lick Resorts ($142m), Recycled Paper Greetings ($187m), and Tropicana Entertainment ($2.49bn).

As the Fed's latest loan survey makes clear, lenders have dropped the guillotine. With the usual delay, the poison is spreading from banks to the real world.

Diane Vazza, S&P's credit chief, says defaults are rising at almost twice the rate of past downturns. "Companies are heading into this recession with a much more toxic mix. Their margin for error is razor-thin," she said.

Two-thirds have a "speculative" rating, compared to 50pc before the dotcom bust, and 40pc in the early 1990s. The culprit is debt. "They ramped it up in the last 18 months of the credit boom. A lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded," she said.

Some 174 US companies are trading at "distress levels". Spreads on their bonds have rocketed above 1,000 basis points. This does not cover the carnage among smaller firms outside the rating universe.

The California city of Vallejo (117,000 inhabitants) has just made history by opting for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, the result of tax erosion from a 26pc fall in local house prices. Half Moon Bay may be next.

"This is the tip of the iceberg: everybody is going to line up for Chapter 9 in California," said John Moorlach, Orange County board chief.

US consumers are juggling plastic to put off their day of reckoning. The Fed survey said credit card debt had jumped 6.7pc in the first quarter to $957bn, or $6,000 per working American, despite usury rates near 20pc.

"My guess is that many Americans continue to run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of paying it off," said Peter Schiff at Euro Pacific Capital. Quite.

Thankfully, the Fed's monetary blitz has averted a depression. Emergency lending under the "unusual and exigent circumstances" clause of the Fed Act - the nuclear Article 13 (3), unused since the 1930s - has put a floor under the banking system.

There will be no "reset Armaggedon" as rates vault on honey-trap mortgages. Drastic Fed cuts - to 2pc from 5.25pc in September - have conjured away that disaster, at least.

One dreads to think what would have happened if Fed liquidationists (Plosser, Hoenig, Fisher) had prevailed, as they did in 1930 - and still do in Euroland, where Germany's Axel Weber holds sway, and nobody of sense dares lead a mutiny.

Despite the rescue, US house prices are likely to fall 25pc from peak to trough (Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs). We are barely half done, yet 10m-12m households are in negative equity already.

The bears at Société Générale are going into Siberian hibernation, issuing an "Ice Age" alert. They have slashed exposure to global equities to a minimum 30pc for the first time ever.

Their weighting of super-safe "AAA" government bonds has been raised to a maximum 50pc. This is a bet on gruelling "Japanese" deflation. The bank expects equities to fall by 50pc to 75pc.

"Nowhere and nothing will be immune. We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios," said Albert Edward, SG's global strategist.

"We see a global recession unfolding. Liquidity will drain away and crush the twin emerging market and commodity bubbles. The recent hope that 'the worst might be over' is truly staggering. Profits are disintegrating," he said.

Today's "bear rally" may live on into June. Don't count on it. Global bourses are no longer rising hand-in-hand with oil in exuberant celebration of liquidity relief (US, UK, and Canadian rate cuts).

Crude ceased to be a friend of equities when it reached around $110 a barrel. At last week's close of $126, it became an outright threat. The Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household - has been rendered null and void by the latest spike. The average US home is now spending over 8pc of income on energy or fuel.

OPEC is playing with fire by refusing to pump more oil to offset rebel attacks in Nigeria. The cartel's output drop of 350,000 barrels a day in April is a hostile act at this point.

But there again, why should Middle Eastern states help America as long as the White House keeps filling the US petroleum reserve to prepare for war with Iran? Bush is playing with fire, too.

The oil spike will burn itself out. China has hit the buffers. With inflation at 8.5pc, it risks political turmoil. Moreover, it has repeated Japan's mistakes in the 1980s, building too many factories shipping too many goods at slender margins into a crumbling export market.

Lehman Brothers' Sun Mingchun says China will tip over in the second half of this year. "With so much latent overcapacity, an export-led slowdown could trigger a chain reaction which, in the worst case, could threaten the stability of [its] financial and economic system," he said.

Britain, Europe, Japan, and China will go down before America comes back up. This is turning into a synchronised bust, after all. The Global Slump of 2008-09 is under way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/12/ccambrose112.xml Read more on this article...

Read more on this article...

4th March 2008 update on woodstock 2008: (through DNA India)

The much-hyped Indian Woodstock Festival seems to have run into problems with a clash between the organisers

The Eastwind Music Festival that Delhi witnessed last month drew the best of musical talent and was described as the Indian version of the classic Woodstock Festival. A few months earlier, though, a bigger announcement was made — there was to be an Indian adaptation of the Woodstock backed by Artie Kornfeld, the original Woodstock organiser. Whatever happened to that project?

Another story doing the rounds suggests a grand Woodstock Festival is happening in Goa with a line-up similar to Artie’s festival, which was being planned in Bangalore in partnership with the Art of Living. Some probing about the status of the Bangalore festival brought into light a dispute between the organisers. After Jackie Shroff, who was part of the deal initially backed out, two other members also seem to have left the project.

“Art of Living has also backed out because Artie doesn’t want to do it for a social cause. It seems like a money-making racket. So we pulled out. We got an email from Artie, who soon after his return to the US from India, showed disinterest in doing it the ‘social cause’ way. He said he was living off his girlfriend’s money and wanted to make some money out of the concert. This beat the whole purpose.

We immediately gave up the idea,” says Suryaveer Singh, who had 19% stake in the company Full Circle formed to back the project. The other stake holder and organiser Lalit Bhatnagar, however, rubbishes the rumours saying things are going in the right direction. According to him, the project is still on and Art of Living is very much a part of it. “Sri Sri Ravishankar is in the US and might be even meeting Artie for further discussions. People have quit the project due to personal reasons,” he confirms.

As far as the Goa Woodstock goes, it’s all a hoax according to Lalit. There are also groups on Facebook and other sites about the impending concert in Goa, which Lalit says is untrue and that the Bangalore festival is slotted for end of this year. Incidentally, Shillong is also being considered as the venue. The rift has left the people who quit the project with a feeling of betrayal. “We were the ones who put Lalit and Artie in touch with Art of Living,” rues Suryaveer. The festival plans to get some original acts from the original Woodstock including Santana and other acts such as Red Hot Chili Peppers. Read more on this article...

WoodStock India, Goa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Santana(Confirmed)
Ravi Shankar (Performed at Woodstock 69)
Red Hot Chilli Peppers
Starship (members of the band Performed at Woodstock 69 as Jefferson Airplane)
Fleetwood Mac
Queen (don't know what line-up)
Iron Butterfly (Performed at Woodstock 69)
Paul McCartney (Beatles)
Jethro Tull (Refused to play at 69)
The Rolling Stones
Aerosmith
Black Eyed Peas
Norah Jones
Fat Boy Slim
The Prodigy
More To be Listed.......
(These are tentaive International Music artists rumoured to be a art of it apart from DJ's, Local Artists, etc

---------------


The news has been doing rounds for quite a sometime now in various communities and forums. It is speculated that the 6th edition of the Legendary Music Festival can very well take place in Goa, India on 08.08.08. Though nothing is for sure but a possibility cannot be ignored too.
Whats more? The rumour is that artists like Red Hot Chilli Peppers, Paul McCartney (Beatles), The Rolling Stones, Aerosmith, Norah Jones, Iron Butterfly, Queen, Santana, Ravi Shankar, Fat Boy Slim have confirmed their presence.
Though there is no official announcement yet but the fans are already dreaming it in Goa.
Related Links:
Jackie to hold Woodstock in India
For the first time in India, the legendary rock concert will be recreated in Goa with international bands in attendance. Thirty-nine years after rock music writer and producer Artie Kornfeld held his legendary Woodstock Music & Art Fair in Bethel , New York, Jackie Shroff is planning a similar concert in Goa next year…read full article.
Father of Woodstock Hums Iindia Tune (Video Link)
Artie Kornfeld (Arthur Lawrence Kornfeld) goes down memory lane as he gets nostalgic about organising the legendary Woodstock festival.
This is his first time in India. Artie, the official organiser of the landmark 1969 Woodstock Festival, has arrived in India to strike a deal with the movie star Jackie Shroff.
LATEST UPDATE:
Jackie pulls the plug on Woodstock
Actor decides to pull out of the Indian Woodstock project and plans a rock show of his own. However as it turns out that Jackie has pulled out of the venture for now. “I’m planning it for next year or so and it will definitely be for a social cause,” he adds. Read more on this article...

Commodity Online
ROME: US president’s controversial remarks on Indian middle class’s food habit seems to have boomeranged on him as the latest FAO data shows consumption by Americans has grown at a much faster rate than Indians.

According to the `global food market report` of the Food and Agricultural Organization, the growth in the cereal consumption in the US was the highest in the world in 2007-08.

The food grain consumption in the US is estimated to have increased to 310.4 million tons in 2007-08 from 277.6 million tons in the previous year, showing 11.81 percent jump.

In contrast, the consumption in India is estimated to have grown by mere 2.17 percent to 197.3 million tons from 193.1 million tons. In China the growth was 1.8 percent to 389.1 million tons from the previous 382.2 million tons. Read more on this article...

Wheel and deal your way to a fortune even faster using debit cards instead of cash! All it takes is a card swipe for money to change hands. Now you can collect rent, buy properties and pay fines - with the touch of a button! Read more on this article...

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Who are you?

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Casio FC 200V

Looks like a 4 line dot matrix. the TI BA II Pro II is a single line calci.

Programming function removed. (Casio Fc 200 had it, but read.. it says they have made some special programs:

"The FC-200V does not have the programming function which the previous one has, however this function is thought to be used for the Bond Calculation, Depreciation and Break-Even Point Calculation which are all built-in the FC-200V. "

Financial Calculations
Simple Interest
Compound InterestsTVMn
P/Y, C/Y
Cash Flow (Investment Appraisal)
Amortization
Conversion
Day calculations
Cost, Shell, Margin
Bond calculation
• Purchase price
• Yield to maturity
Depreciation
• Straight - Line Method
• Fixed percent Method
• Sum-of-the-Year's Digits
• Declining Balance
Break-Even Point Calculation
• Break-Even point sales quantity
• Break-Even point sales amount
• Sales amount for expected interest
• Sales amount for expected interest rate
• Margin of Safty
• Degree of Operating Leverage
• Degree of Combined Leverage
• Degree of Financial Leverage

http://www.casio-europe.com/euro/sc/financial/fc200v/specifications/

--

TI BA II Professional

http://education.ti.com/educationportal/sites/US/productDetail/us_baii_plus_pro.html?bid=5

• Solves time-value-of-money calculations such as annuities, mortgages, leases, savings, and more.
• Generates amortization schedules
• Performs cash-flow analysis for up to 32 uneven cash flows with up to 4-digit frequencies; computes NPV and IRR
• Net Future Value (NFV)
• Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)
• Modified Duration
• Payback and Discounted Payback
• Choose from 2 day-count methods (actual/actual or 30/360) to calculate bond price or yield to maturity or to call
• 4 methods for calculating depreciation, book value, and remaining depreciable amount: SL, SYD, DB, DB with SL cross-over
• Depreciation Schedules
• Bond prices and yield to call or maturity
• Also computes: break-even calculations, interest conversions, delta %, profit and loss, cost, selling price, margin and markup.
• Prompted display guides you through financial calculations showing current variable and label
• BGN/END payment setting
• Partial years
• 10 user memories
• 10-digit display
• List-based one- and two-variable statistics with four regression options: linear, logarithmic, exponential and power
• Math functions include trigonometric calculations, natural logarithms, and powers
• Black protective pouch with quick reference card included
• One lithium 2032 battery included
• APD™ (Automatic Power Down) conserves power
• One-year limited warranty

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BAII PLUS ™ PROFESSIONAL
Guide Books
The following guidebooks are available for this product:

• BA II PLUS(tm) PROFESSIONAL guidebook


http://education.ti.com/educationportal/downloadcenter/SoftwareDetail.do?website=US&appId=6115&tabId=2

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BAII PLUS ™ PROFESSIONAL

Key Fonts
The following key fonts are available for this product:

• BA II PLUS™ & BA II PLUS™ PROFESSIONAL Key Fonts

http://education.ti.com/educationportal/sites/US/productDetail/us_baii_plus_pro.html?bid=9

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TI BA II Professional Tutorials

http://movies.atomiclearning.com/k12/ti_ba2 Read more on this article...

No tough choice. By reducing the interest rates, he's bringing about starvation to the world.

Hang in there. Don't get muddled up in finance.

The sheer sense of the perception of the smell of pure evil pervades around me now.

The door has been opened ever more slightly. Let us push harder against it, if not to close it, then at least to ensure that the youngest feel less pain.

That does not require a Gandhi cap. Or saffron robes either. Nor education.

Won't get fooled again.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=b3mi-bKtDGA



Buffett says the same thing - in a more technical language.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9qMR2tesBU8&refer=home

--
Bernanke may be doing the right thing for all you know - despite the unpopularity. Hiking interest rates could reduce money supply and fall in domestic consumption. Reducing it as he has done with a hope that domestic consumption will pick up could cause inflation reducing domestic consumption - tough choice indeed. Read more on this article...

It's so easy to see gold support at $700-$725. (God help if that breaks!)

It's at $850 or so currently.

Seems that the downside target will reach End July- August which is India's lean period.

With gold ETFs available in India (demat gold), that's an easy ride on one commodity which is long term bullish.

Ride from $725 to $1,600. Not a bad 100% profit in say, two year's time.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp Read more on this article...

Investment newsletters are now featuring headlines like "How You Can Profit from the Global Food Crisis." The recommended investments include agribusiness stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that speculate in agricultural commodities. These investments will no doubt do very well in the global food crisis; but before you put your money down, you may want to explore whether you will be helping to alleviate the problem or contributing to it. Do you really want to "invest" in starvation? In an April 23 article in the German news source Spiegel Online called "Deadly Greed: The Role of Speculators in the Global Food Crisis," Balzli and Horning note, "Many investors . . . are simply oblivious to the fact that by investing in the global casino, they could be gambling away the daily food supply of the world's poorest people."

The main reason for rising prices, of course, is the surge in demand from China and India.
Hundreds of millions of people are joining the middle class each year, and that means they
want to eat more and better food. A secondary reason has been the growing demand for
ethanol as a fuel additive. That's soaking up some of the corn supply.2

That's the rationale published in the Journal of Wall Street, the financial community that brought you the housing bubble, the derivatives bubble, and now the commodities bubble, producing the subprime crisis, the credit crisis, and the oil crisis. The main reason for the food crisis, says this author, is that the Chinese and Indian middle classes are eating better. Really? Rice has been the staple food of half the world for centuries, and it is hardly rich man's fare. Moreover, according to an April 2008 analysis from the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, food consumption of grains has gone up by only one percent since 2006.3 That hardly explains the fact that the price of rice has spiked by 75 percent in just two months. The price of Thai 100 per cent B grade white rice, considered the world's benchmark, has tripled since early 2007; and it jumped 10 percent in just one week. The fact that corn is being diverted to fuel, while no doubt a contributing factor, is also insufficient to explain these sudden jumps in price. World population growth rates have dropped dramatically since the 1980s, and grain availability has continued to outpace population. Biofuels have drained off some of this grain, but biofuels did not suddenly happen, and neither did the rise of the Asian middle class. If those were the chief factors, the rise in food prices would have been gradual and predictable to match.


Read the whole thing here:

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/global-food-crisis.php Read more on this article...

One of the issue as I understand, having read it in detail elsewhere, is that there is no way that the eyeball can be kept totally still with current technology, amongst other things. Better to stick to specs or contacts.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0%2C2933%2C352587%2C00.html Read more on this article...

Carly Smithson might be the first "American Idol" contestant to be voted off the show for blasphemy.

Online chat boards devoted to "American Idol" have been abuzz since Ms. Smithson performed the title song from "Jesus Christ Superstar" -- the 1970 rock opera, which many Christians consider offensive -- on Tuesday's episode. Ms. Smithson received the fewest votes of the six remaining contestants following her Tuesday performance. Her elimination was announced on Wednesday night's episode. The week's performances were drawn from the works of Andrew Lloyd Webber, who wrote "Jesus Christ Superstar" with Tim Rice.

Since its debut, and particularly following the release of the 1973 film version, "Jesus Christ Superstar" has been railed against by some Christians for its portrayal of Jesus as confused and at times unwilling to accept his role, and because it hints that he had a sexual relationship with Mary Magdalene.

Brain expert warns of huge rise in tumours and calls on industry to take immediate steps to reduce radiation

By Geoffrey Lean
Sunday, 30 March 2008

Mobile phones could kill far more people than smoking or asbestos, a study by an award-winning cancer expert has concluded. He says people should avoid using them wherever possible and that governments and the mobile phone industry must take "immediate steps" to reduce exposure to their radiation.

The study, by Dr Vini Khurana, is the most devastating indictment yet published of the health risks.

It draws on growing evidence – exclusively reported in the IoS in October – that using handsets for 10 years or more can double the risk of brain cancer. Cancers take at least a decade to develop, invalidating official safety assurances based on earlier studies which included few, if any, people who had used the phones for that long.

Earlier this year, the French government warned against the use of mobile phones, especially by children. Germany also advises its people to minimise handset use, and the European Environment Agency has called for exposures to be reduced.

Professor Khurana – a top neurosurgeon who has received 14 awards over the past 16 years, has published more than three dozen scientific papers – reviewed more than 100 studies on the effects of mobile phones. He has put the results on a brain surgery website, and a paper based on the research is currently being peer-reviewed for publication in a scientific journal.

He admits that mobiles can save lives in emergencies, but concludes that "there is a significant and increasing body of evidence for a link between mobile phone usage and certain brain tumours". He believes this will be "definitively proven" in the next decade.

Noting that malignant brain tumours represent "a life-ending diagnosis", he adds: "We are currently experiencing a reactively unchecked and dangerous situation." He fears that "unless the industry and governments take immediate and decisive steps", the incidence of malignant brain tumours and associated death rate will be observed to rise globally within a decade from now, by which time it may be far too late to intervene medically.

"It is anticipated that this danger has far broader public health ramifications than asbestos and smoking," says Professor Khurana, who told the IoS his assessment is partly based on the fact that three billion people now use the phones worldwide, three times as many as smoke. Smoking kills some five million worldwide each year, and exposure to asbestos is responsible for as many deaths in Britain as road accidents.

Late last week, the Mobile Operators Association dismissed Khurana's study as "a selective discussion of scientific literature by one individual". It believes he "does not present a balanced analysis" of the published science, and "reaches opposite conclusions to the WHO and more than 30 other independent expert scientific reviews". Read more on this article...

In Haiti, where three-quarters of the population earns less than $2 a day and one in five children is chronically malnourished, the one business booming amid all the gloom is the selling of patties made of mud, oil and sugar, typically only consumed by the most destitute.

"It's salty and it has butter and you don't know you're eating dirt," said Olwich Louis Jeune, 24, who has taken to eating them more often in recent months. "It makes your stomach quiet down." Read more on this article...

"Rice is a staple food," Chardonnay is not." Read more on this article...

To make ink from tea, all you need is:

* a strong cup of black tea
* unsoaped steel wool
* vinegar
* a small saucepan (or beaker)
* 3% hydrogen peroxide (from chemist or drugstore)


To make ink from tea:

1. Make a third of a cup of strong black tea with a tea bag, or use the strained dregs from a teapot. The tea contains tannic acid.
2. Dissolve some unsoaped steel wool by warming it in a quarter of a cup of vinegar in a small saucepan. The solution will be greenish-blue due to indigo. (If you don't know about ions yet, don't worry.)
3. Add the iron solution to the tea. Black iron (III) tannate will be formed. Be careful, this is indelible and will stain clothes.

Try writing with the ink. You may need to thicken it by adding a thickening agent such as gum arabic or kudzu. Read more on this article...

Read more on this article...

boomp3.com Read more on this article...

Excellent rendition, smooth timing!

Read more on this article...

My third custom video, merging an existing Korean (?) ballet by a disabled couple with "C'est La Vie" by Emerson Lake and Palmer.


Read more on this article...

>XAU, weekly chart



>XAU, daily chart Read more on this article...

Gold for April delivery fell $59, or 5.9 percent, to $945.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the biggest percentage drop for a most-active contract since June 2006. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

In 1980, the price tumbled $50 a day from Jan. 22 to Jan. 24. On Jan. 21 that year, the metal climbed to $873, a record that lasted for almost 28 years.

If you haven’t bought gold or silver already you are completely insane. Read more on this article...

14th March 2008

It's known to technicians everywhere as a death cross, and it is happening on the Shanghai Composite Index. That's the index that has jumped by over 450% during the last two years--a sure sign of a speculative bubble.

A death cross is formed when the 50-day moving average of a stock falls below (crosses) the 200-day moving average. It indicates that there are currently more people selling than buying the stock. It is as bearish as it gets.

And it's not the first time the exchange has seen the "death cross," either.

As you can see, the death cross came twice on the index over the last five years, first in 2003 and later in 2004. Each time, of course, the index dropped dramatically, culminating in a 50% decline over all.

And while a third death cross hasn't actually completed yet, the Shanghai Composite continues to drop even as a Bernanke-inspired rally pushes the Dow higher. The index actually lost nearly 3% on the same day the Dow rallied 440 points.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/68518-why-it-s-not-too-late-to-short-china?source=side_bar_short_ideas Read more on this article...

I'll be damned. The Dow is up 105 currently and shows no sign of stopping. Commodities have been hammered, and oil has shown it's biggest drop in years! That's how fast things change. Gold, too, shows topping up signs now.

Look for $600 gold. Look for 85 in dollar index. Also look for 13,500 is Dow Jones Industrial Average in the next several months. It is called bear market short covering rallies.

That's how fast a view can change. I think it changed tonight. Read more on this article...

There’s no point in burying your head in the sand like an ostrich and waiting for a miraculous rebound. An active interest in the state of affairs is a must. The first thing you should do is take a long, hard look at your portfolio.

"Does it have more of established companies with proven track records, or does it consist more of stocks like Nagarjuna Fertilizers & Chemicals and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL), which you bought because they were ‘momentum plays?’

Having done that, get rid of the momentum stocks. After all, with the momentum gone, it’s time for these stocks to go as well. The rule is simple: ‘Never hold on to something that you wouldn’t buy now’ . Never ‘hope’ or ‘pray’ . It is either a ‘buy’ or a ‘sell’.

So, it doesn’t matter at what price you bought such stocks — just dump them and collect whatever cash you can. If you have blue-chips in your portfolio like Reliance Communications, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever or ICICI Bank, to name but a few, you can actually choose not to sell them. In the long run of say, 3-5 years, there is a good chance that you will still earn a return higher than what a bank deposit can give you in the same time period."

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Investors_Guide/Cash_is_King_Tips_for_small_retail_investors_/articleshow/2872872.cms Read more on this article...

"We are now at the level where the president has to get involved. We are now at the point where we have to worry about the barter system. We have to start being concerned about whether trades clear in the system.

It's a crime that all of this could have been avoided. But it wasn't.

And now they have to accept that some very big banks are going to go bankrupt. If they don't get ahead of it, the banks that go under will be the biggest ones in the country.

That needs to be prevented.

I don't think they understand that.

I don't think they have the courage, the knowledge, or the conviction to do what they have to do." Read more on this article...

At first glance, you say "She cannot be a Wall street analyst!". She is, and a good one at that.

This is what she has to say today (17th March 2008):

"The problems at Bear Stearns may be unique, but U.S. financial stocks nonetheless have further downside of as much as 50%, according to Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney."

“On the basis of book value, most banks do not appear expensive as they trade near price to book multiples of the 1990-1991 credit cycle,” she said in a note. “However on the basis of tangible book value, banks look expensive and are trading well above tangible book value.”

"Merrill Lynch, UBS and Citigroup will be the worst hit. Lehman brothers shares are already down 30 per cent in pre-opening trading."

Ms Whitney, Forbes’s second-highest-ranked stock picker for 2007, set off the biggest stock market decline in the US since August with a note on Citigroup.

The analyst who downgraded Citigroup, which led to a broad stock market sell-off in November, said she had received several death threats, the Times of London reported Saturday.

"Clients are not pleased with my call and I have had several death threats," she added. "But it was the most straightforward call I've made in my career and I am surprised my peer analysts have been resistant. It's so straightforward, it's indisputable." Read more on this article...

Around 2001, two environmental groups called Toxics link and Vatavaran based in Delhi, did a study on the contents of these chemical colours and published its results in a fact sheet on Holi. This research revealed that Holi colours come in three forms; pastes, dry colours and water colours.[1]

The pastes contain very toxic chemicals that can have severe health effects as follows:

Black contains lead oxide and can cause renal failure.
Green contains copper sulphate and can cause eye allergy, puffiness and temporary blindness.
Silver contains aluminium bromide which is carcinogenic.
Blue contains prussian blue which can lead to contact dermatitis.
Red contains mercury sulphate which is highly toxic and can cause skin cancer.[2]

The dry colours, commonly known as gulals, have two components – a colourant that is toxic and a base which could be either asbestos or silica, both of which cause health problems. Heavy metals contained in the colourants can cause asthma, skin diseases and temporary blindness.[3]

Wet colours, mostly use gentian violet as a colour concentrate which can cause skin discolouration and dermatitis.

These days, Holi colours are sold loosely, on the roads, by small traders who often do not know the source. Sometimes, the colours come in boxes that specifically mention For industrial use only.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holi


Safe Holi colours:

Make your own colours!

The good news, however, is that it is possible to make simple natural colors in one’s own kitchen.

These simple recipes for making natural colours were also freely distributed as part of the Safe Festivals campaign, and children were taught how to make colours through lecture demonstrations in schools.

Here are a few things one can do at home:

* Mix haldi powder with besan for a lovely yellow.
* Slice a beetroot and soak in water for a deep pink.
* Boil Marigold or Tesu flowers in water for yellow colour. The other easy way to get a yellow liquid colour is to soak peels of pomegranate (Anar) overnight.
* For an orange red paste, henna leaves (mehndi) can be dried, powdered and mixed with water.

http://www.kalpavriksh.org/f1/f1.4/GAholi1 Read more on this article...

[Elaine: I amended this chart to show important banking moments. This is amazing. It shows clearly that our banking system is insolvent. This graph should be posted on all front pages, it is more important than peccadillos of our ruling elites running after expensive whores. This is them running after Miz Risky, the biggest Whore of them all.]

UBS puts the banks total losses from the subprime fiasco at $600 billion. If that's true, (and we expect it is) then the Fed is out of luck because, at some point, Bernanke will have to throw in the towel and let some of the bigger banks fail. And when that happens, the stock market will start lurching downward in 400 and 500 point increments. But what else can be done? Solvency can only be feigned for so long. Eventually, losses have to be accounted for and businesses have to fail. It's that simple.

Roubini has been right from the very beginning, and he is right again now.

http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/ezmoneymatters/2008/03/roubinis-nightm.html

http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/03/really-scary-fed-charts-march.html Read more on this article...

This is possible only for certain stereo tracks. When the vocals are exactly the same on both stereo channels, you can remove them by “subtracting” one channel from the other. This works for many studio recordings, where the vocal track is mixed exactly in the center.

To do this in Audacity:

1. Import your stereo file into Audacity.
2. Open the track menu (click the arrow next to the track title), and choose “Split Stereo Track.”
3. Select the lower track (the right channel) by clicking it in the area around the mute/solo buttons.
4. Choose “Invert” from the Effects menu.
5. Using the track menus, change each track to “Mono.”

Press the Play button to hear the results. If you are lucky, the voice will be gone but most of the other instruments will be unaffected, just like a karaoke track. You can use the Export commands in the File menu to save the results.

If the vocals are not exactly the same on both stereo channels, there are some other techniques or optional plugins you can try. Please see our Vocal_Removal Wiki page for more details. Read more on this article...

"In our view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."

That warning was in Buffett's 2002 letter to Berkshire shareholders. That was 2002.

Wall Street didn't listen to Buffett. Derivatives grew into a massive bubble, from about $100 trillion to $516 trillion by 2007.

Data on the five-fold growth of derivatives to $516 trillion in five years comes from the most recent survey by the Bank of International Settlements, the world's clearinghouse for central banks in Basel, Switzerland.

The BIS is like the cashier's window at a racetrack or casino, where you'd place a bet or cash in chips, except on a massive scale: BIS is where the U.S. settles trade imbalances with Saudi Arabia for all that oil we guzzle and gives China IOUs for the tainted drugs and lead-based toys we buy.

To grasp how significant this five-fold bubble increase is, let's put that $516 trillion in the context of some other domestic and international monetary data:

U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion
U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion
Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion
U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion
U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion
World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion
Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion
Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion
BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion
BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion

"There's nothing intrinsically scary about derivatives, except when the bad 2% blow up." Unfortunately, that "bad 2%" did blow up a few months afterwards, even as Bernanke and Paulson were assuring America that the subprime mess was "contained."

Bottom line: Little things leverage a heck of a big wallop. It only takes a little spark from a "bad 2% deal" to ignite this $516 trillion weapon of mass destruction. Think of this entire unregulated derivatives market like an unsecured, unpredictable nuclear bomb in a Pakistan stockpile. It's only a matter of time.

The fact is, derivatives have become the world's biggest "black market," exceeding the illicit traffic in stuff like arms, drugs, alcohol, gambling, cigarettes, stolen art and pirated movies. Why? Because like all black markets, derivatives are a perfect way of getting rich while avoiding taxes and government regulations. And in today's slowdown, plus a volatile global market, Wall Street knows derivatives remain a lucrative business.

And it takes place outside normal business channels, out there in the "free market." That's the wonderful world of derivatives, and it's creating a massive bubble that could soon implode.

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:31 p.m. EDT March 10, 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/derivatives-new-ticking-time-bomb/
story.aspx?guid=%7bB9E54A5D-4796-4D0D-AC9E-D9124B59D436%7d&print=true&dist=printTop
Read more on this article...

(For other news from the Reuters Global Mining Summit, click on http://www.reuters.com/summit/GlobalMiningandSteel08?pid=500)

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Soaring gold prices are likely to breach $1,500 an ounce in 2008, the chief executive of Canada's Yamana Gold Inc said on Tuesday.

"There is a good chance we will see it before the end of this year," Peter Marrone told the Reuters Global Mining Summit in London.

Gold was quoted at $977.50/978.40 at 1245 GMT.

It hit a record high of $991.90 on March 6, a rise of 19 percent since the end of 2007, driven by inflation fears, a weak dollar, record high oil, expectations of further rate cuts in the United States and tight supplies.

Marrone said the current environment formed "a perfect storm" for higher gold prices, which would need to rise to more than $2,000 in adjusted dollars to match the previous nominal peak of $850 set in 1980. (For summit blog: http://summitnotebook.reuters.com/) (For more on the Reuters Global Mining Summit see [ID:nN10455170] (Reporting by Ben Hirschler; editing by Rory Channing).

http://africa.reuters.com/metals/news/usnL11325529.html

11th March 2008 Update: Infrastructure shares look good. Market in a bounce. Recoup losses.


10th March 2008

There is no doubt left in my mind that a bear market is underway. Other than short covering in the Sensex, a 50 basis point interest drop in the USA (which itself would have very little positive effect on the market) and considering that we are still highly coupled to the world financial situation (if not its economical situation), I think we are now headed to the Mid August '08 lows when the Sensex was 14,000.

To this effect, I sold off a few minor midcap holdings today at approx. average 20% loss as energy release.

The reason for this minor sell-off if I may call it that, is the fact of what I now term as the :Inverted Sparrow Head", a technical term that I have invented(!). Wild as it may sound, but I have seen at the beginnning of the bull run, a bollinger band formation which I call "Compression" shaped by a narrow bollinger, which becomes pincered and shaped like a walnut- breaker) leading to a huge initial expansion of the share price (in the shape of a "Sparrow Head"), and then the formation of a "Beak", which leads to some consolidation, and once agin into a larger expansion.

The slope of the beak has many times indicated the bullishness of the next move. for example, in the case of a pharma co., the slope of the beak was upwards, which lead to a huge upmove subsequently.

Currently, many shares have now an "Inverted Sparrow Head" exactly inverse of that formed during the bull run. The 'Beaks of many shares is now not horizontal, but pointing downwards. This implies that after trading for a short time within the narrow bollinger, a large break-out has to occur downwards, and keeping in line with the overall market heading towards 14,000.

The double (long term and short term) bollinger buy signals (first on the daily charts, and then on the weekly charts) would be the first indication that one could risk a purchase. A single bollinger band on the daily charts as has occured today in SBI), may lead to a price closer to the upper bollinger, but no more, unless further confirmation of the long term bollinger is also available. The prime principal of "Safety of Capital" (and not mazimising of profits) applies to the bear phase, so it is prudent to only make purchases on double bollinger band buy signals on the Weekly charts and not on the daily charts and hope that they are not false signals. Such signals still seem to have some time to be generated.

It pays to be very stock specific this time, and also to purchase for the longer term, leaving the shorter term buys in Sensex scrips and not in mid caps. That does not mean, however, that we should totally lose track of the mid caps sectors, andhence miss out the quick 25% rise from bottoms.

The one sector, which is not exotic (like solar cells) and which is bound to do well in the future is Infrastructure. To maximise profits one needs to look at the fundamentally good and emerging midcaps in this sector.

Two such midcaps, I feel, are GMR Infra and J P Associates. I'm sure there are more. So, a strategy would be to inddenitfy fundamentally good emerging mid cap scrips, which have a running business, and whose projects are soon to go on-stream (as is the case of GMR Infra with their Air port projects, and take a purchase decision on double weekly bollinger and buy signals with about 25% of the total investment you intend to do in a particular scrip so that a false signal is downplayed.

Short term plays may be done on commodity scrips like ONGC and yes, SBI.

HNI individuals should book some of their long term profits now, and channel the money into gold ETFs.

Kakstearns Read more on this article...

^XAU


"When investors are focused on meeting a threshold like $1,000 an ounce for gold, a sell-off of
upto 15 percent is likely once the goal is achieved."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-ym-marksjarvis-0309mar09,0,432614.column

(But with a 2 year target of $ 2,000 an ounce). Wave 1 likely to complete at around $ 1,400 to 1,500 an ounce).
Read more on this article...

You can see clearly that we are on the brink of breaking the trendline that has effectively held the bottom for five years for the second and final time. Once broken, the DJIA won't just retest the January low, it should, in all likelihood, drop to the 50% retracement or lower.

But that's not all. The rally out of the January low overlapped the November low twice. That eliminated the first decline in November as a wave 1. Instead it is an A. It follows that the decline that we are starting is (iii) of C, which may extend considerably further than the 50% retracement. That raises some interesting possibilities. And we are just at the brink of discovering them.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3901.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7073131.stm Read more on this article...

It's interesting to read history. Here is what three of India's top technical analysts had to say in January 2008 (!!)

If what they claim to be true technical analysis, then history has proved it so terribly wrong, should the entire method needs to be thrown into the sea?

Not really. The fact is that it is very difficult to have a foresight on turning points in markets as well as in history, by mere procedural analysis. The emtire process is a combination of fundamentals, technicals and human behavior all rolled into one, finally creating ONE insight.

What did I say in October?

"The sensex has peaked and will crash in January 2008."

And this is what I'm saying now.

"The sensex will bottom out in September 2008, albeit with some bear rallys in between".

Read...!!

"How will 2008 be? To know what the charts indicate, The Smart Investor gets three technical analysts to predict what's in store for the current year. Neowave analyst Milind Karandikar, stock market consultant and analyst Devangshu Datta and Orpheus Capitals CEO Mukul Pal predict the market in 2008. Read on to know more. . . "


1. Milind Karandikar

January 07, 2008

This puts the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark. The breakout could be as big as 2.618 times the largest leg, leading to a mind boggling figure of 39,000. Even if we keep aside this over-optimistic view, the target of 27,000 could be achieved and that too most probably in the first half of 2008. ......

2. Devangshu Datta

January 07, 2008

Summing up, the first eight months of 2008 should be positive, and there's no technical signals suggesting that the market is due for a major correction. Intermediate corrections should find support and peter out around 5,600 levels. Breadth looks good and relatively smaller stocks could outperform. ......

3. Mukul Pal

January 07, 2008

After Sensex 20,000, the market expectations are for 30,000, but I don't see the Sensex extending beyond 24,000 this year with the benchmark making a decade high this year.
This year, the BSE Capital Goods index should move its last leg up to complete the cycle trend the sector started in 2002. The index should complete the last leg up from current 20,000 levels to 25,000. ......

To read the complete article, visit:

http://ia.rediff.com/money/2008/jan/07bspec.htm

End of Post Read more on this article...

Guys, here's my take on the markets. The article below does resonate much of my thinking, and also gives reasonable levels. A word first, on this bullish-bearish thingy though.

Yes, we have broken the DAILY chart 200 DMA, not the WEEKLY chart, (in fact, we have just broken the 50 DMA on the Weekly charts, but this could recover very fast after a steep decline, like it happened in June '06 and never again till now), and may continue to ride below that zone say for a month or so.

The article states that this is an Elliot wave 4 correction. Now, Elliot wave counts are very complex and many times the count has been proven wrong, but seeing the structure of the sensex, it seems more like a rounded top rather than a vertical blow-out aswould be expected in an Elliot wave 5. So at the moment, I would accept this as a wave 4 correction. In which case, the good news for LONG term holders is that on completion of wave 4 the final bullish wave 5 will start. (That may take some time though!)

Next, on the DAILY and the WEEKLY charts the market is terribly oversold. I have never seen the WEEKLY Stochastics in such oversold regions (approaching 0) in the last four years. Earlier, a WEEKLY buy signal, (and there have been very few such opportunities ie., once a year, giving a lot of credo (is this a word?) to the fact that a buying opportunity really takes place once or twice a year. (As shown on the chart, May '05, July '06, April '07 and now, when the signal appears, the buying opportunity for '08.) which implies a wait of another 6 to 8 weeks on the WEEKLY Sensex or Nifty, confirmed with early buy signals in the daily charts sometime before that. Sentiment at that stage would still be very BEARISH and would turn BULLISH only after the cream 25% to 30% of the rise has taken place.

From this virtual ground zero levels, there has to be a technical bounce-back! Exactly how high would it go, is a matter of conjecture, but could be as high as 18,000. Again, reaching that level may take some time (and 'm speaking in terms of months).

Before it gets there, there is some bad technical news. The next support after 4900 (which has been broken), is 4300 on the Nifty. That means one has to be ready to sit through another fall of 600 points on the Nifty and hope that holds. That's the point when we will see the real blood bath. This is merely bruising, since long term investors are still in considerable profit.

Having said that, the potential to correctly guage the entry point if you exit now has a very low probability, since the level of FEAR will be so great at that point, that only extremely fool-hardy and contrarian persons (like me!) will even think of entering.

So, the long term strategy is to HANG IN THERE and this may mean for over a year. After all, as a long term player, your interest is to catch the greatest rise, which will take place in the 5th minor wave of the 5th major, (provided it is not truncated by some DISCONTINUITY which is the prime cause of not being able to predict anything in the markets), and the indices at that time would be of the "shock-and-awe" type.

As the article mentions, and rightly so, only a break of Nifty 4000 (gulp!) would declare this as a LONG TERM BEAR MARKET.

As I had mentioned earlier, (and this seems to be coming true now), is that every developing nation has to go through a depression (read a bear market), before a secular BULL can start.

One would need to sit out the hell that is going to happen to the world markets in September '08.

Do read the blog post below this, where Roubini has listed out the 12 stages of economic hell. (Quite akin to the 12 days of Christmas!)

Next post: Another very interesting person to follow. Ms. Meredith Whitney.


Quote, courtesy DNAINDIA: Both the Sensex and Nifty appear to be tracing out an Elliot Wave-4 correction CHENNAI: Technically, indices have fallen enough to cleanse the excesses created during the earlier rally. The key ones such as the Sensex and the Nifty have corrected from deep overbought levels in the monthly time frame and have nearly reached the oversold zone. Benchmark indices have also reached extreme oversold region in the daily and weekly time frames. Hence, technically, the correction that was required has been accomplished with the fall on Monday. Markets have hit crucial support levels in both the indices and have staged an intra-day bounce off those levels. It would be crucial for the indices to hold above the intra-day lows recorded on Monday for a sustainable recovery to materialise in the short-term. A breach of these lows could lead to the test of the next major support levels in these indices. In the Sensex for instance, a drop below Monday’s low of 16951 could lead to the test of 16390-16500 range. In the Nifty, the support levels are at 4900-4950, followed by 4240-4300. Though these support levels may appear scary from current levels, the long-term uptrend will not be affected even if these levels were to be tested. Both the Sensex and Nifty appear to be tracing out a Wave-4 correction (in Elliott Wave parlance) to the earlier rally and the next segment of uptrend would take these indices to new heights. As there is a case for a lot of churning and base-building to happen before the next leg of uptrend begins, we may not see new highs in the index in a hurry. The long-term uptrend would be under threat if the Sensex closes below 15000 and the Nifty below 4000. From a short-term perspective, the scenario is ripe for a sharp technical rally and those who are holding short positions may tighten stop loss or take partial profits. Traders may also wait for short-term “buy” signals and take long positions for a quick 12-15 per cent bounce in the index. The key here would be risk control and entry at the opportune levels. http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1146698

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Consider this: Step one has yet to finish.

"Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.

Step two would be further losses, beyond the $250bn-$300bn now estimated, for subprime mortgages. About 60 per cent of all mortgage origination between 2005 and 2007 had “reckless or toxic features”, argues Prof Roubini. Goldman Sachs estimates mortgage losses at $400bn. But if home prices fell by more than 20 per cent, losses would be bigger. That would further impair the banks’ ability to offer credit.

Step three would be big losses on unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and so forth. The “credit crunch” would then spread from mortgages to a wide range of consumer credit.

Step four would be the downgrading of the monoline insurers, which do not deserve the AAA rating on which their business depends. A further $150bn writedown of asset-backed securities would then ensue.

Step five would be the meltdown of the commercial property market, while step six would be bankruptcy of a large regional or national bank.

Step seven would be big losses on reckless leveraged buy-outs. Hundreds of billions of dollars of such loans are now stuck on the balance sheets of financial institutions.

Step eight would be a wave of corporate defaults. On average, US companies are in decent shape, but a “fat tail” of companies has low profitability and heavy debt. Such defaults would spread losses in “credit default swaps”, which insure such debt. The losses could be $250bn. Some insurers might go bankrupt.

Step nine would be a meltdown in the “shadow financial system”. Dealing with the distress of hedge funds, special investment vehicles and so forth will be made more difficult by the fact that they have no direct access to lending from central banks.

Step 10 would be a further collapse in stock prices. Failures of hedge funds, margin calls and shorting could lead to cascading falls in prices.

Step 11 would be a drying-up of liquidity in a range of financial markets, including interbank and money markets. Behind this would be a jump in concerns about solvency.

Step 12 would be “a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices”.

In all, argues Prof Roubini: “Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1,000bn and the economic recession will become deeper more protracted and severe.” This, he suggests, is the “nightmare scenario” keeping Ben Bernanke and colleagues at the US Federal Reserve awake. It explains why, having failed to appreciate the dangers for so long, the Fed has lowered rates by 200 basis points this year. This is insurance against a financial meltdown."

From:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/5/5/

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