Pithaly

KakStearns:

Saved from a dramatic 500 point fall in the DOW by the 0.75% cut, man!


C, here is my current chart analysis: (Indian market):

Short term supports:

16527, 200 day moving average line. Trading downside of this, will put us in an intermediate bear market, within the long term bull market.

18581.6, 100 day moving average. Market must start to trade above this, for investors to enter.

Daily (Proprietory Intelligent Technical analysis indicator), indicates another 2 weeks before the first buy signal can appear. (Investors need to enter only on the third buy signal).

Daily Stochastic Oscillator indicates no buy signal yet from oversold regions.

On balance volume is still higher than that in Mid Sept. 2007

Daily Bollinger Bands. Have not shown any buy signal yet!


Long term supports:

50 day moving average line at 16,090 was violated, and then there was bounce-back. Indicates continuation of bull run as of date.

100 day moving average is at 14125.6

200 day moving average is at 10075.

Technically, we would be in a long term bull market only of violation of 10,075, by which time all would be lost.

Bullish bearish indicator shows that we have touched bottom, or almost touched bottom, and if we are still in a bull run, then this is a BUY opportunity, of the kind last seen in Mid August 2007, and early March 2007, the only two times in 2007 which were BUY opportunities. Persons who bought at these levels and held, are not in loss, at worst, at par.

Long Term Intelligent Technical Indicator shows another three weeks or so, before a BUY signal, which means it would be a confirmation of the Daily Intelligent Technical indicator buy signal expected in two weeks time.

Long term Stochastics indicates that a long term buy signal will occur in 4 weeks time.

In summary:

1. We are still in an intermediate and long term bull market, with this being an intermediate correction, provided 16,500 is not violated.

2. A technical buy signal will be generated in two weeks time, but it's better to wait for confirmation for another two weeks.

3. For a month, DO NOTHING.

4. A new intermediate bull run will have new leaders.

5. Possible good value stocks are ( in my opinion), Unitech, Suzlon, Hindustan Lever, BPCL (BPCL at somewhat lower levels), and ITC. Confirmation of Bollinger Band buy signals awaited.

6. We are right on the long term upward trend line. It may violate due to excessive pessimism now, to a max. of 14,300 or so, but remain there for a very short time, to enable investors to capitulate. That would be the best buying opportunity, if it is to occur.