For one, it explains most of my abilities.





http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=X_2VXcQXw_0




If you don't believe this, do see the following video to be amazed.







http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=He7Ge7Sogrk Read more on this article...

I think we have missed out on some of the uses of precious metals which seem to be making a resurgence after thousands of years.

It is well known to the moderately intelligent Indian who has not fully migrated to McDonalds and Bling, that water kept silver vessels will kill bacteria. A recent application of silver has been in Air handling units where it is used to neutralise bacteria in the air stream.

It's the same case for gold. Early uses apart from the use of jewelery (which btw, was not merely for decorative purposes, but the heavy gold jewelery adorning the bare chests of men ensured absorption of gold molecules which serve a healthy purpose), also included the use of gold for false teeth on account of it's malleability, ductility and it's inertness.

Gold is now used in the manufacture of integrated circuits on account of it's ductility, non-corrosiveness and high conductivity.

Recent research has been going on in the use of gold in the manufacture of DNA sensors which would be used to detect diseases.

I dare say that the future will see more and more applications of this beautiful metal.

Excerpts from recent research:

ScienceDaily (Aug. 23, 1997) — Evanston, Ill. --- Researchers at Northwestern University have combined gold and DNA in an innovative way that should lead to new techniques for detecting many types of diseases. Screening for genetic and pathogenic diseases -- that is, those transmitted through heredity and those transmitted by microorganisms -- may be done using the new material, according to one of its inventors, Chad A. Mirkin, professor of chemistry at Northwestern.

Functionalized nanoparticles are covalently bound to internal, chemically modified bases on double-stranded DNA without the presence of destabilizing "nicks" along the DNA backbone. In addition, we report an approach for thiolating one end of the DNA/nanoparticle product and attaching it to a gold surface. The ability to attach one or both ends of the DNA/gold complex, after generation of the desired pattern, to fixed contacts or electrodes is necessary for nanodevices fabrication.

Abstract. This report presents the use of disulfide-modified single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) to form DNA self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) and mixed DNA-carbon nanotube (CNT) hybrids SAMs on gold substrates. Mixed DNA-CNT SAMs are composed of DNA,
mercaptohexanol (MCH) and DNA-CNT aggregates. Both, DNA-CNT and DNA areas of the mixed SAMs were analyzed and compared to traditional DNA SAMs. The results suggest the formation of a more compact and densely packed monolayer of DNA-CNT in comparison with DNA. The use of DNA-CNT hybrids to form SAMs on gold substrates might represent a new approach to improve the immobilization of DNA strands on gold, and might therefore help with the development of enhanced DNA sensors. Read more on this article...

NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The United States is in the second inning of a recession that will last for at least 18 months and help kill off hundreds of banks, influential economist and New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini told Barron's in Sunday's edition.

Taxpayers will pay a big price for helping bail out the rest of the financial services industry as well, Roubini said -- at least $1 trillion and more likely $2 trillion.

The banks will become insolvent because of mounting losses as a result of the housing bust and because they have only written down their subprime loans so far, he said. Still in front of them are their consumer-credit losses, for which they lack the reserves, Barron's reported.

He also said there are hundreds of millions of dollars outstanding in home-equity loans that could be worth zero, too.

U.S. consumers, meanwhile, are "shopped out" and saving less, while the Federal Reserve's performance in handling the crisis has been poor, Roubini said, because it failed to see that the problem extended beyond subprime mortgage debt.

Now, Roubini told Barron's, the government is overregulating, bailing out troubled participants and intervening in every market.

"The regulators should investigate themselves for bailing out Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the creditors of Bear Stearns and the financial system with new lending facilities. They have swapped U.S. Treasury bonds for toxic securities," he told Barron's. "It is privatizing the gains and profits, and socializing the losses as usual. This is socialism for Wall Street and the rich."

He said that sometimes it is necessary to use public money to rescue institutions, but in a way that does not bail out the people who made the mistakes. "In each one of these episodes, the government bailed out the shareholders, the bondholders, and to some degree, management," Roubini told Barron's.

As for the banks that will go bankrupt, they will include community banks that finance homes, stores, downtown areas, commercial real estate and other mainstays of U.S. towns and cities, Roubini said.

"Of three dozen or so medium-sized regional banks, a good third are in distress," he told Barron's, saying half of the group could go bankrupt. Some big banks could wind up insolvent, he added, but said they might be deemed too big to fail.

Nouriel stressed that he is "quite bullish" about the state of the global economy and that he is positive about the medium and long term.

(Reporting by Robert MacMillan, editing by Martin Golan)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0344130720080803?sp=true Read more on this article...

That dreaded day approaches again. Rakhi. (Raakhi, Rakhee, Raki, Rakee, Raakee) It's not the old sisters that are a problem. It's the new wannabees which scare me.
They gonna grab your hand when you least expect it. I wish I can find a place to hide,
and get back home safe.
I'l be back someday.
Before I sail away. Read more on this article...

Lousy Investment #1: Bonds
Lousy Investment #2: Real Estate in the U.S.
Lousy Investment #3: U.S. Stock Markets
Lousy Investment #4: European Stock Markets
Lousy Investment #5: Most of Latin America

Best Investment #1: Gold!
Best Investment #2: Energy
Best Investment #3: Natural Resources
Best Investment #4: Economies that are driving demand for natural resources higher.

Reason: They are the economies that are also largely driving global economic growth these days. Countries like India and China. Indonesia and Malaysia. And more!

It's not too late. By the time the crisis hitting the U.S. is over, gold will be trading at more than $2,000 an ounce.

http://www.marketoracle.org/Article5709.html Read more on this article...

"The customer is then advised of what amounts to a catch-22 situation: The quality of the diamond is only guaranteed as long as it remains sealed in plastic; if the customer takes it out of the plastic to have it independently appraised, the certificate is no longer valid. "

This book was originally published by Simon&Schuster in 1982 under the title "The Rise and Fall of Diamonds.

http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/diamond/endnotes.htm Read more on this article...

Go to excel, and in any sheet right click in the little Excel icon file and choose "View code".

That should take you to the VB Editor.

Delete the text that appears (If you had nothing there)

Private Sub Workbook_Open()

End Sub

Now, copy this text:


Public PvSh As String
Public Pwd As String

Private Sub Workbook_SheetActivate(ByVal Sh As Object)
If Pwd = "" Then
If Sh.Name = "Sheet2" Then
Num = ActiveWindow.Index
Windows(Num).Visible = False
If Application.InputBox("Enter Password", "Password") <> "airplane" Then
MsgBox "Incorrect Password", vbCritical, "Error"
Application.EnableEvents = False
Sheets(PvSh).Select
Application.EnableEvents = True
Else
Pwd = "airplane"
End If
Windows(Num).Visible = True
End If
End If
End Sub


http://www.mrexcel.com/archive/VBA/1646.html Read more on this article...

SCUM = S acred C ow U ntouchable M ountains of banking manure. See the Sacred Cow SCUM list of banks forbidden from shorting, led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman. Do you think their bank executives loaded up on option calls before the news, all tipped off? Sure!

Lost somewhere along the way was the legitimacy of shorting a stock when the company behind the stock was insolvent and fending off bankruptcy. The protected few sacred cows have one thing in common, being all related to the London Bullion Market Assn (LBMA).

So those very banks most closely associated with corruption of the precious metals market are the sacred cows most protected by totally obscene selective regulatory enforcement.

Without more corrupt interference in its market, the gold price would have surely vaulted past 1000 in July. So enter JP Morgan and their vile henchmen comrades.

The next ambush came late last week and this week. What was the risk posed to the US Dollar? This time the dire bank situation had turned desperate in its bloody atmosphere, laden with many ugly features and developments. First , the corrupt block of legitimate shorting of bank stocks coupled with selective enforcement of naked shorting of bank stocks coupled with improper blame of bank stock woes assigned to those nasty short speculators. So they engineered a short cover rally in the bank stocks that truly defies any claim as absurd that the US stock markets are fair, open, and driven by equilibrium, or free from scum. Read more on this article...

The 100 day moving average line is at 15,398.
(On both, the weekly and the daily, approximately).

I would wait for the Sensex to:

1. Cross that.
2. Move higher.
3. Come back to re-test the 100 day moving average line.
4. Take a good support on it for a few days or a week or two.


Alternatively,

1. I would wait for the sensex to react down from what ever top it makes now.
2. Check if the new bottom is higher than the earlier bottom at 12500.

All this, before INVESTING for the medium term. It's too early to speak of the long term yet, unless a few fundamentals start to show persistant change.

Ever since the bear run started, the Sensex has made three attempts to cross the 100 day moving average line in the daily charts, the last being at 17,600 or so, when the 100 day moving average line crossed DOWNWARDS with respect to the 200 day moving average line and from there the Sensex just kept sliding.

On the daily charts the moving average convergence-divergence is still well below the 0 neutral level. Not a bullish sign.

The price rate of change is at around the highest levels achieved earlier. Not bullish.

The Sensex was not able to cross the daily moving average line which is at 14,925 since it exhibited a high for the day of 14980. Not bullish.

Volumes are still very low compared to the volumes during the bull trend.

This does seem however, to be the bear market counter rally developing. Wave B in Elliot Wave language.

The termination of wave B leads to the unfolding of the most destructive Wave C, which may be as far way as 6 months from now. So wave B may take the Sensex anywhere from 16,200 to 18,000 or thereabouts.

If you must buy, then buy now. Not when the sensex is 17,000 to 18,000. that's the point where you lighten your current and EARLIER load!

If not, hold patience for 6 months or so, or till the signals given above are negated and confirmed before investing.

One could always play in a small way for 10% to 15% gains in the short term, with the attendant risks involved. Which implies that this play is best done in group A shares.

Look, the time to buy was when things were the most pessimistic. Since then the shares have risen considerably. for example, from it's bootom of around 1,000, SBI now trades above 1,500 which is a full 50% rise! To expect further rise from here without a change in fundamentals seems to me as a tall order.

If no further fundamental bad news emerges from the US, then I expect that the Sensex will trader sideways for 6 months, before beginning a new destructive slide.

A bear market ends in hopelesness, despair, blood, and total capitulation. That has not happened as yet.

And the most important signal of the ending of a bear market in India!

THAT OF A SCAM!!

Please keep checking the horizon for signals of a major scam.

On the other hand, the 200 day moving average has not been pierced on the downside (as mentioned by me earlier) technically indicating that we are still in a LONG term bull market, which is experiencing an intermediate term downtrend.

We would be squarely placed in a long term bear market on violation of the 200 day moving average line in the weekly charts which is at 11,899.

If the expected wave C emerges, then this possibility exists. Else, with the strengthening of the dollar and the fall in crude prices and the likely substantial fall in commodity prices over the next few months, a strong wave B may be emerging, which would culminate in a very weak wave C and the continuation of the bull run. This extended bull run did happen in the US after the severe Black Monday fall in 1987 for another period of 13 years till 2000!

The usual disclaimer applies: "If ya don't listen to me, you will lose money"

Which of course begs the question "What did I say?" Heh.

KakStearns Read more on this article...

Drummers are fitter than footballers say scientists

By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 3:03 PM on 22nd July 2008

• Comments (0)
• Add to My Stories

Drumming in a rock concert puts the performer through a workout as gruelling as a Premier League footballer endures during a match, exercise scientists revealed today.

An eight-year study involving Blondie's Clem Burke found that drumming over 90 minutes lifted his heart rate to the same level as Cristiano Ronaldo's in a league game.

The physical demands of his trade meant Burke's heart averaged between 140 and 150 beats per minute, but could go as high as 190. He burned between 400 and 600 calories per hour during the trials.

"If I had to take a guess, I would estimate that there are over one billion carats of diamonds in the hands of consumers. That is over 100 times the annual consumption gobbled up for weddings, anniversaries, birthdays and even Super Bowl rings.

Diamonds have never been considered an investment instrument after one billion dollars was lost by consumers buying diamonds as a hedge against inflation in 1980.

But, it appears some lessons aren't easily learned. For anyone who has been paying attention, you would have noticed that large, investment grade (IF, VVS1, VVS2 & D, E, F) diamonds have been sky rocketing in prices! Currently a 5ct D,IF is selling for over 3/4 of a million dollars. That's about double what it was just a few years ago. However, we don't have to look hard to see other commodities mimicking the same exponential, unrealistic growth. Oil, gold, platinum, rice, wheat, etc... everything is up! Way up!

The question is this: is this the new reality or have we fallen down the rabbit hole? The prices people are paying for some diamonds is reflecting a market mania. The current diamond climate is creating a craze very similar to the tulip mania in the early 1600s in Amsterdam. Believe it or not, back then, at the height of the mania, a tulip went for $76,000 a bulb! Six weeks after smart money got out, the price had fallen to a dollar!

Within 12 months there are going to be a lot of sad people sitting on a lot of big investment grade diamonds that will be worth a fraction of what they paid. My advice is this: for the next year, stay away from 2ct+ investment grade diamonds unless you are willing to be a statistic in the great diamond crash of 2009.

If you are going to buy a 2ct non-commercial rock that isn't investment grade, you will still have to pay at least 20% more than what its cash liquidity is worth! That said, if the world ever wakes up and realizes that nobody really needs a diamond and everyone goes to the market to sell at the same time, tulips and diamonds will have more in common than being pretty; they'll both be a cautionary tale.

by Fred Cuellar, author of the best-selling book "How to Buy a Diamond." Read more on this article...

Over centuries, across many stock markets in many great nations, 14x earnings has simply been the long-term average valuation for common stocks. Sometimes valuations are higher, sometimes lower, but they always oscillate around a secular mathematical average of 14x. While long-established historical validity is enough proof, this number is quite logical too.

The DOW traded at a stupendous 45 in the year 2000. Yesterday, it traded at 14 PE, which is the HALFWAY mark, from a secular bearish bottom at 7.

The Indian Sensex traded at 26 PE at it's peak of 21,000 or so.

It has bounced back from a PE of 16, which means that it is still above the HALF way mark.

With the fourth wave as per Elliot likely to complete in 1-1/2 years, guess the Sensex value at that point. 14, 12 or 8? Tea anyone? Read more on this article...

In case you think these outcomes are exaggerated, these are the things that happened after the French Revolution, the fall of the Roman Empire, The fall of the Spanish Empire, the Fall of Byzantium, the fall of the British Empire… etc. The fall of the US economic system, the world USD system, and the US as a superpower won't be any different. Also, a lot of these outcomes happened during and after the Great Depression of the 1930's. That all happened commensurate with the decline and fall of the British Empire and Pound that dominated world economies for 200 years, and eventually led to the USD system taking prominence after WW2 and the USD was used to stabilize the European currencies during the war.

Supposing the USD devalued by over 50 to 70% in a year's time, after endless attempts to save a collapsing world consumer credit economy, we may see:

* First of all, the savings of the US would drop drastically in value. That means everything from savings accounts to pensions would lose much purchasing power, and prices of every necessity would skyrocket.

* Second, our major trade partner's economies would have to do massive readjustments. They are not in a good position to do that. We can take the present rapidly spreading economic weakness of the EU zone as an example. Asia will not escape either. They will desperately try to keep their currencies from strengthening too much at first as the USD falls. This is why the USD seems to have 9 lives. These attempts to debase along with the USD allow the USD to stay higher than it would.

* World inflation will spiral out of control, lowering standards of living. Other major currencies such as the Euro and Yen will be heavily pressured as well. Until the world figures out how to actually delink from an imploding US economy, they will suffer along with the US's fate. So far, the delink theory has been shown to be completely wrong. Why? Because the world economy is tied at the hip to the USD (The delink theory is that other strong economies of Asia or the EU will be able to carry the world economy even if the US economy falls apart. So far, that has been completely discredited in this latest world economic slowdown).

* Big geopolitical turmoil as regimes combat out of control food and fuel prices.

* A war in the Middle East over oil. The Iran / Israel situation might also be called a proxy war/struggle over Mid East influence for China, the US, Russia, the EU, and Asia because energy is so expensive.

* A very possible period of insurrection, riots, shortages, and chaos in large US cities. I also believe that the EU and China and India are at risk for this too.

* A 10 year world economic depression, that China in particular cannot tolerate, as the world economy readjusts out of necessity into a totally new form, one that is less global and probably more warlike.

* Debt deflation where a rapidly dropping USD effectively wipes out outstanding debts, while the population struggles merely to exist.

* Vast bank failures in the US and major Western economies, and likely China as well.

* Efforts of world central banks to ‘bail out' ‘everything' resulting in their currencies falling drastically in value while inflation skyrockets, until either they learn better, or have hyperinflation and their own currency collapses after the USD falls apart. In effect they will have to either ‘let go' of the USD or suffer the same fate.

* Stock markets at 10% of where they are now in 3 or 4 years if the USD actually lets go by 50% or more in 09 (nominal stock prices might actually stay higher but the devaluation of the currencies would effectively cut the purchasing power in half anyway.)

* Prices of most essentials effectively 4 times higher, worldwide.

* Big increases in energy and food prices causes many other sectors of world economies to fall apart, as all ‘money' is used merely to survive.

* Gold at $3000to $5000 plus and oil at $300 plus putting a further huge crimp on world economic growth. Obviously if the USD did a real collapse, say to 10% of its purchasing power now over several years, gold is over $10,000 and in some areas you will buy a decent house for one ounce of gold. Oil will be traded/priced in other currencies, and probably rationed in the US at a cost of $20 or more a gallon. In this case, the present world economy that depends on cheap transportation totally devolves. Globalization becomes de-Globalization, and China either figures out how to migrate to its own domestic demand or faces a huge collapse of their export economy.

* Severe world currency restrictions and foreign exchange controls. You won't be able to move your money out of your country. Likely restrictions of withdrawals to monthly limits from bank accounts as governments attempt to deal with currency chaos.

* Rationing of necessities as the world economy enters paralysis and governments have no choice.

* One bright spot for all, the return of employment to local instead of outsourcing. Production and consumption returns to local economies, as it should have been all along. That is a long 20 year process and involves a severe deep economic depression until the world economies/economy is rebuilt from scratch compared to what it is now. Debt repudiation on a massive scale as the world emerges from the ashes (hopefully not real ashes…)

* Many new governments worldwide after revolutions during economic collapses and or wars. Democracies falter worldwide, and more authoritarian governments appear to deal with the chaos as the democracies enter paralysis.

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article5509.html Read more on this article...

Surprise. H Pylori is a friend.

Rising asthma rates may be partly explained by bacterial imbalances in our guts.

In a study published yesterday in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, researchers showed that Heliobacter pylori, an intestinal microbe that co-evolved with humans, appears to protect children from asthma.

Asthma rates have nearly doubled in the United States since 1970, and are swelling in the developing world. Underlying the rise is a constellation of causes -- and one of these may be the loss of H. pylori, a vanishing member of the rich bacterial ecosystems in our stomachs.

Nearly universal at the advent of modern antibiotics, it's now present in just one-fifth of young Americans. The drop is a boon for people in whom the bacteria would eventually cause stomach problems, but some researchers say the bug is needed to calibrate our immune systems.

"When humans left Africa, they had H. pylori in their stomachs. It was universal. And it's now clear that H. pylori is disappearing. Ulcer diseases and stomach cancers are going away, but new diseases are appearing -- including asthma and related disorders," said study co-author Martin Blaser, a New York University microbiologist.

http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/07/internal-bacter.html


An Endangered Species in the Stomach

Is the decline of Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium living in the human stomach since time immemorial, good or bad for public health?

Helicobacter pylori is one of humanity's oldest and closest companions, and yet it took scientists more than a century to recognize it. As early as 1875, German anatomists found spiral bacteria colonizing the mucus layer of the human stomach, but because the organisms could not be grown in a pure culture, the results were ignored and then forgotten. It was not until 1982 that Australian doctors Barry J. Marshall and J. Robin Warren isolated the bacteria, allowing investigations of H. pylori's role in the stomach to begin in earnest. Over the next decade researchers discovered that people carrying the organisms had an increased risk of developing peptic ulcers--breaks in the lining of the stomach or duodenum--and that H. pylori could also trigger the onset of the most common form of stomach cancer [see "The Bacteria behind Ulcers," by Martin J. Blaser; Scientific American, February 1996].

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=an-endangered-species-in&ref=sciam Read more on this article...

Thus a total collapse of the US financial system, while not inevitable, is a contingency which should now be planned for.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JG16Dj03.html Read more on this article...

This is a very simple & non-geeky trick to help you read the latest issue of popular magazines like PC Magazine, MIT Technology Review, Popular Mechanics, MacWorld, Lonely Planet, Reader’s Digest, etc without paying any subscription charges.

You will also get to read adult magazines like Playboy and Penthouse. Best of all, these digital magazines are exact replicas of print and served as high-resolution images that you can also download on to the computer for offline reading.

How to Read Online Magazines for Free

Step 1: If you are on a Windows PC, go to apple.com and download the Safari browser. Mac users already have Safari on their system.

Step 2: Once you install Safari, go to Edit -> Preferences -> Advanced and check the option that says "Show Develop menu in menu bar."

Step 3: Open the "Develop" option in the browser menu bar and choose Mobile Safari 1.1.3 - iPhone as the User Agent.

Step 4: You’re all set. Open zinio.com/iphone inside Safari browser and start reading your favorite magazines for free. Use the navigation arrows at the top to turn pages.

For people in countries like India who are already subscribed to Zinio Digital Magazines, this hack is still useful because you get access to certain magazines which are otherwise not available for subscription via Zinio (e.g., Penthouse and Playboy).

Geeks may write a AutoHotKey script or create a "scrolling capture" profile in SnagIt that will auto-flip magazine pages and save all the images locally. Thanks Scott. And here’s a related trick on how to read Wall Street for free.

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post. Read more on this article...

BPCL, Weekly

Big money is only made by thinking different, and before others latch on to the same idea.

No one today will be proposing this, but I am.

Look, oil, as I said, is not going to correct from $146. In fact, it's shot up to $ 150 and the expected peaking is in the $160 - $165.

Peaks remain for a very short time (as do bottoms).

If this is likely to come true, then we are very close to oil peaking. Like the Sensex at 19,000 or 20,000 just before it peaked at 21,000.

It seems that oil consumption in the US is at a five year low.

Why not take an early position?

The position has very little downward risk, but a huge upward potential, if the above scenario happens.

I'm speaking of BPCL, HPCL and the like.

BPCL 255.75

Terrific buy signals currently.

Earlier peak was 550 or so.

It's historically never been below 270!!!!!

This is a pure moolah-making contrarian play!!

Check out the weekly chart attached:

1. Moving average envelope BUY signal.
2. Bollinger band BUY signal.

Absolutely OVERSOLD.

You CANNOT lose on this deal if oil really crashes to $80 or 90 a barrel.

350 first target. In fact, maybe the point to exit and re-enter if bullishness persists.

(350 - 270) / 270 = 29.6% in say, 6 months max?

That's an annualised 90%!

BUY CALL No 2:

BSELINFRA.

37.9

10 buy signals in weekly, 12 in daily.

Likely to give a very quick 25% without effort!!

WAIT. Try to get it closer to 33. (Likely to fill the current gap between 33 and 41).

Yo. I'm not a professional. The usual disclaimers apply :) Read more on this article...

Markets have completely shocked and taken huge beating on account of disappointing IIP numbers, rising inflation, crude and no revision in Infosys' guidance in dollar terms. Huge sell off seen in technology, capital goods, power, oil, banking and metal stocks. Global cues have not played any big role in today's session. All BSE indices ended in red.

The Sensex fell 574.9 points and Nifty 147.75 points to hit intraday low of 13,351.34 and 4014.45, respectively. Sensex closed with a loss of 456.39 points or 3.28% at 13,469.85. Nifty closed at 4049.00, down by 113.2 points or 2.72%.

Nifty Futures discount ended at 20 pts; discount widened to 50 points post IIP numbers. Nifty futures added 48.5 lakh shares versus 22 lakh shares pre IIP. Nifty Mini witnessed hectic activity; 4th highest turnover seen at Rs 6656 crore after RIL, Infosys, Reliance Capital. Fresh shorts have seen in tech and capital goods stocks.

Infosys, L&T, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Satyam, Reliance Industries, ONGC and TCS were biggest draggers for indices.

Growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of May has declined at 3.8% as against 10.6% in same period of last year, which is below expectations. May Manufacturing growth was also down at 3.9% from 11.3% (YoY) and Capital Goods at 2.5% versus 22.4%.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/local-markets/disappointing-iip-nos-rising-oil-thrash-mkts-it-cg-crash/17/35/346641 Read more on this article...

We had expected the four-year long bull-phase to terminate in the first quarter of 2008 in our long-term outlook at the beginning of this year.

Our outermost target for the Sensex for 2008 was at 13700. Now that this level has been conclusively breached, a review of the long-term counts is called for.

The signs of a significant bull-market top were littered all over in the last quarter of 2007 – irrational price movement, excessive speculation, unjustifiable valuations, bottom-rung stocks coming out of wilderness to enjoy their days in the sun, surfeit of exorbitantly priced IPOs and so on. The party had to come to an end and it did at the peak at 21206 on January 11.

As explained in our yearly outlook, it is possible to anticipate a correction but difficult to judge the nature of the correction. We had taken the more optimistic view at the beginning of this year and anticipated the corrective move to halt at the first long-term support at 13700.

A halt here would have implied a sideways move between 13700 and 21000 for a couple of years before the up-trend resumed to take the Sensex beyond 30K.

But the decline below 13700 brings the next long-term supports for the Sensex at 11900 (50 per cent retracement of the up-move from 2001) and then 9703 (61.8 per cent retracement) in to focus.

We stay with our long-term count that the current down-move is the fourth part of the long-term cycle that began in 1980.

The fifth leg (upward) would then take the index beyond 25000 again. Caveat - decline below 9703 would need recasting of the counts.

The more difficult question is, how long would this down-trend last? As per Elliott Wave theory, corrections can extend from anywhere between 0.33 to 1.618 times the time consumed by the previous up-move.

The previous up-move lasted four years. That gives us the range between 16 to 77 months. Since the previous long-term correction from 1994 to 2003 was a long-drawn one, applying rules of alteration, the correction this time can be a sharp and swift one that ends in one to one- and- a- half years.
Second half of 2008

Though the Sensex appears to be hurtling lower in to an abyss right now, a three wave A-B-C movement downwards is drawing close to termination. A 1:1 relation between the A wave and the C wave gives us the target at 11206. Fifty per cent retracement of the bull market from 2001 gives us the support at 11900. The decline from January can halt somewhere between these two levels.

However, it needs to be borne in mind that the down-move from 21206 could be the first leg of the long-term correction. But once this leg ends, we would have an intermediate term up-trend that would provide some respite to the battered stocks.

The preferred view is that the index would halt in the zone between 11000 and 12000 and spend the rest of 2008 in a range between 12000 and 16500. Our outer targets for the year would be 18000 and 9700. We await clues from subsequent rallies to tell us how the rest of this correction will shape-up.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2008/07/06/stories/2008070650230900.htm


From a fundamental perspective, the collapse in the Sensex PE multiple, from 29 times trailing earnings in January to about 16 times now, ensures that rosy growth projections are no longer factored into Indian stock prices. Read more on this article...